What to Expect from the RBA's September 2025 Meeting and What It Means for Your Mortgage

February 9, 2026 0

RBA cut the cash rate to 3.60% at its August meeting, following easing inflation and signs of softening in the labour market. Now, all eyes are on the next decision at the RBA’s meeting scheduled for 29-30 September 2025.

Here’s what the latest data suggest, what experts are predicting, and what mortgage holders should be doing now.

Key Economic Indicators Ahead of September

A few of the major trends to watch:

Inflation is continuing to ease, with both headline CPI and underlying (“trimmed mean”) inflation moving closer to the RBA’s target range (2-3%).
Labour market signs are weakening. The unemployment rate has ticked up or remained elevated in recent data, showing some softness in full-time employment.
Economic momentum is mixed: consumer spending and business confidence are under pressure but not yet collapsing. Households remain sensitive to rates and the cost of living.

What Experts Are Predicting for September

Based on recent surveys and commentary from economists:

Most analysts expect the RBA to hold the cash rate at 3.60% in September. The view is that while inflation is easing, it’s not yet clearly sustainable, and the labour market is only moderately weakening.
Some experts believe that a further cut may be possible later in 2025 (perhaps in November), depending on how economic data unfolds, particularly inflation, wage growth, and employment.
As always, there’s a lot of emphasis on “data dependency” — the RBA has signalled they’ll move cautiously and not until they are satisfied inflation is sustainably within the target band.

What This Means if You Have a Mortgage (or Want One)

If you have a mortgage, are refinancing, or planning to buy, the September decision carries implications:

1. Borrowers on Variable Rates
If the RBA holds in September, variable rate borrowers probably won’t see another immediate cut. It might be prudent to lock in savings now or to review with your broker whether your lender has passed on all previous cuts.

2. Fixed Rate Loans or Refixing
Fixed-term borrowers won’t benefit directly from a rate cut until their term ends. But if another cut looks likely later in the year, refinancing might yield savings for those who can wait. Alternatively, splitting a loan (with a fixed and variable component) could offer a balance between stability and flexibility.

3. Buyers & Investors
Lower rates typically lift borrowing capacity, but demand may respond gradually. If rates stay at 3.60% through September, you might see more competition for attractive home loan deals. It could be a good time to get pre-approved or lock into a favourable rate before things tighten again.

4. Refinancing & Switching Lenders
Some lenders may begin adjusting their margin spreads or promotional rates to compete. If your current deal is above market average (especially after recent cuts), it might make sense to shop around or negotiate with your lender.

Risks & Variables to Watch

Inflation could prove “sticky” in certain sectors (like rents or services), which might limit how far or how fast the RBA can cut further.
Wage growth, activity indicators, and global economic risks (e.g., supply chain issues, trade disputes) could shift the RBA’s stance.
Some lenders may be slow to pass on cuts, or may reduce variable rates only partially. Borrowers need to confirm what their bank is doing.

What You Should Do Now

Check if your lender has passed on past rate cuts in full; if not, ask or explore other options.
If you’re on a variable rate, consider whether it’s worth taking part fix now, especially if more cuts are likely later.
If you’re thinking of refinancing, start gathering quotes and talking to brokers to see what’s available.
Prepare for the possibility that September’s decision will be a hold; plan your budget accordingly.

Ready to See How Much You Could Save?
The September RBA meeting may bring a hold, but that doesn’t mean you should stand still. Lenders are already adjusting their pricing, and the gap between the best and worst rates is wider than ever.

💬 Let’s chat about your loan — I’ll review your current setup, compare it to what’s available, and help you decide whether to refinance now or wait.

👉 Book your free home loan review today and make sure you’re not leaving money on the table.